Comparative evaluation of the impact of GRAPES and MM5 meteorology on CMAQ prediction over Pearl River Delta, China--颗粒学报PARTICUOLOGY

Deng, T., Chen, Y., Wan, Q., Zhang, Y., Deng, X., Huang, Y., . . . Li, F. (2018). Comparative evaluation of the impact of GRAPES and MM5 meteorology on CMAQ prediction over Pearl River Delta, China. Particuology, 40, 88-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.partic.2017.10.005

Comparative evaluation of the impact of GRAPES and MM5 meteorology on CMAQ prediction over Pearl River Delta, China

Tao Deng ^a *, Yiang Chen ^{a b}, Qilin Wan ^a, Yanxia Zhang ^a, Xuejiao Deng ^a, Yanyan Huang ^a, Guangfeng Dai ^a, Fei Li ^a

a Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080, China
b Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

10.1016/j.partic.2017.10.005

Volume 40, October 2018, Pages 88-97

Received 26 March 2017, Revised 8 October 2017, Accepted 13 October 2017, Available online 2 March 2018, Version of Record 28 July 2018.

E-mail: tdeng@grmc.gov.cn

Highlights

• Air quality forecasting of GRAPES-CMAQ and MM5-CMAQ was assessed.

• Both models had similar good performance with better performance by GRAPES-CMAQ.

• Underestimations of nitrate and ammonium salt contributed to underestimations of PM_2.5.

• Effect of meteorological factors and physical–chemical processes on forecast results was discussed.

Abstract

The community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model was used to forecast air quality over the Pearl River Delta region from December 2013 to January 2014. The pollution forecasting performance of CMAQ coupled with two different meteorological models, i.e., the global/regional assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES) and the fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5), was assessed by comparison with observational data. The effects of meteorological factors and physicochemical processes on the forecast results were discussed through process analysis. The results showed that both models exhibited good performance but that of GRAPES-CMAQ was better. GRAPES was superior in predicting the overall variation tendencies of meteorological fields, but it showed large deviations in atmospheric pressure and wind speed. This contributed to the higher correlation coefficients of the pollutants with GRAPES-CMAQ but with greater deviations. The underestimations of nitrate and ammonium salt contributed to the underestimations of both particulate matter and extinction coefficients. Source emissions made the only positive contributions to surface layer SO₂, CO, and NO. It was found that O₃ originated primarily from horizontal and vertical transport and that its consumption was predominantly via chemical processes. Conversely, NO₂ was found derived primarily from chemical production.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

Air quality; Numerical simulation; Global/regional assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES); Community multiscale air quality (CMAQ); Process analysis

文章导读